[Previous entry: "And so it begins..."] [Main Index] [Next entry: ""Letter from Gotham" referrals"]

22 March 2003: "Armchair military analysis 101"

The ground war in Iraq is proceeding apace; between CNN, BBC, et al. it looks like the al-Faw peninsula and Umm Qasr are, for all intents and purposes, under Coalition control, though there's resistance in and around Basra and Nasiriya. The bulk of the Iraqi 51st Mechanised Division has surrendered, and the lead elements of the US 3rd Infantry Division have crossed the Euphrates, bypassing Nasiriya, and are only now starting to encounter resistance—a mere 160 clicks (100 miles) south of Baghdad itself.

Let's have a look at the units involved so far.

Coalition:

Over on the right (eastern) flank is the UK 3rd (Royal Marines) Commando Brigade, of Falklands fame.

In the centre are the UK 1st Armoured Division and elements of the US 1st Marine Expeditionary Force.

On the left flank, we have the US 3rd Infantry Division. The division's lead element is its reconnaissance squadron (which, in US cavalry terminology, is the equivalent of a battalion), the 3-7th Cavalry.

Coming up to the rear are the US 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) and the UK 16th Air Assault Brigade. These guys are tooling along in the rear right now, but I'm betting they'll be used for some interesting manoeuvring at some stage, requiring their airmobility.

Busting into Iraq out of Turkey, thus opening the northern front, was supposed to have been the US 4th Infantry Division (of Utah Beach and Vietnamese Central Highlands fame); but the northern front's off (for now), the troops are still at Fort Hood, TX, and the division's heavy gear is headed around the Arabian peninsula towards Kuwait City or Umm Qasr.

Coalition mysteries:

A. The vanishing heavies
The US 1st Armored Division's website is "temporarily unavailable until further notice." According to CNN, the division, headquartered in Wiesbaden, Germany, "is expected to receive orders to deploy to the Persian Gulf region."
Now, if I were were writing for DEBKAfile, you would be reading "our military intelligence sources report exclusively that...."
But I'll admit I'm just applying educated guesswork, and here goes:
The demissionary Dutch government was confronted in mid-February with the question whether to allow transport of US material and personnel from Germany through the Netherlands to Rotterdam harbour; as of 18-Feb-2003, this transport was already underway (if you read Dutch, check this article in the Dutch newspaper NRC). Since the 1st Armored is the only unit based in Germany involved in Operation "Iraqi Freedom," this indicates that the division shipped out a month ago.
So where is the 1st Armored Division now? You'll notice, if you check the major news sources, that nobody is mentioning "Old Ironsides," and I'm inclined to think it's for reasons of operational security.

Similarly, the US 1st Cavalry Division received orders assigning it to CentCom's area of responsibility on 02-Mar-2003. The "First Team" was airmobile in the Vietnam War, but these days they're armour-heavy. This makes them less than suitable for Afghanistan, but just perfect for, say, Iraq.

So we have two of the US Army's heaviest divisions saddled up and moved out, and nobody knows where they are or, at least, those who know aren't telling. I think the Iraqi Republican Guard is in for some very ugly surprises.

B. The Scud Box
BBC reports that airfields "H2" and "H3" in the western Iraqi desert—the "Scud Box"—have been captured by Coalition forces. Oh, yeah? By whom, and how did they get there? Has anyone seen the 1st and 3rd Battalions of the 75th Ranger Regiment lately?
One of the Rangers' mission is to seize airfields in support of SpecOps missions (especially those of the not-officially-acknowledged-to-even-exist Delta Force); I suspect the Scud Box is currently (and probably has been for some time) crawling with US Special Forces and British and Australian SAS to forestall any attempt on Saddam's part to lob missiles at Israel. So far, they seem to be succesful; we'll find out when the Andy McNabs, Chris Ryans and Cameron Spences of this war get their stuff published.
(As an aside, for those of you not familiar with the term, "Andy/Sandy McNab" is Cockney rhyming slang for crab. Thus, you should not be surprised to hear that the author of Bravo Two Zero was—gasp!—using a pseudonym!)

I've neglected the Iraqi armed forces, but have look at this excellent page by Mr. Robin Lee, and you'll have head start at being an armchair military analyst; amaze your friends.

au currant
Black Decaf
The Illiterati
Cointelpro Tool
Norman Geras
A Fistful of Euros
Harry's Place
Plastic Gangster
Blogfonte
Tim Newman
€urosavant
Crooked Timber
Gallowglass
Mr. McGillicuddy
eameljenet
Civax
101-280
Colby Cosh
Peaktalk
Mick Hartley
Oliver Kamm

Miscellanea:

Care to contribute
to the coffee fund?