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01 April 2003: "Keegan on Iraq"

While I don't normally care for the Daily Telegraph, I have to give them kudos for publishing an opinion piece by noted military historian John Keegan, "This is not Vietnam"
The title indicates the main thrust; check it out.

While I'm on the topic, what is all this garbage about the "failure of the Coalition plan"? In my experience—having spent 12 months on the S-3 section (operations and training) of a brigade staff during my national service—no military force of battalion size or over goes into battle without the operations officer having drawn up at least three different plans, plus some ancillary plans to cover contingencies.
Yes, the United States is dispatching more troops to the region. But is it me, or was mention not made, less than a month ago, of the "rolling war" option, which involved invading with the troops already in theatre, with the intent of reinforcing the contingent after initial gains were made? That seems to be what CENTCOM has gone for, presumably with an eye to seizing the initiative.
The primary objection to the "rolling war" option was the threat that the Republican Guard would not remain in defensive positions around Baghdad, but instead counter-attack the Coalition spearhead before reinforcements could arrive. This has not happened; indeed, even if the Coalition needs to pause to bring in extra troops, there is nothing the Iraqi armed forces can do to prevent that from happening.

And while I'm ranting anyway, how did the notion ever gain currency that the Iraqi forces are "outnumbered"? Iraq started this war with well over 200,000 troops in the regular army and Republican Guard combat divisions alone—I'm not even counting the Fedayeen or the Popular Army—against some 60,000 Coalition ground combat troops. The Republican Guard alone—estimated at 80,000 troops—outnumbers the Coalition ground force. What kind of math do they teach at journalism school anyway?

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