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14 April 2003: "Meanwhile, back in the Netherlands..."

The Dutch (semi-editorial) cartoon Fokke & Sukke commented last month that the war in Iraq would be resolved sooner than the formation of the new Dutch coalition government, and it looks increasingly like that assessment was correct.

The previous government, composed of the CDA (Christian Democrats), VVD (free-market liberals) and LPF (the Lijst Pim Fortuyn) was a smoking wreck 87 days after being sworn in. Of course, it was on fire and out of control well before that happened.

The voters did not blame the CDA, which actually notched up an extra seat in the election last January, bringing it to 44 in the 150-seat Second Chamber of parliament. This made it the largest party in parliament, and its leader, Jan-Peter "Harry Potter" Balkenende, again got the job of forming a coalition government. A coalition government requires a parliamentary majority (76 seats), and ideally, this should be done with a few parties as possible to minimise incidences of conflicting platforms.

The PvdA (Labour) took a beating last May, dropping to 23 seats in the 150-seat Second Chamber of parliament, but bounced back to 42 in the elections of January this year. So the obvious coalition would have been a CDA/PvdA one, only two parties with a comfortable 86-seat majority. But last week, negotiations between the CDA and PvdA broke down, which means that Balkenende needs to look to different partners.

The VVD would be an obvious choice, but with 28 seats, the coalition would only have 72 seats—not enough for a majority—so a third party is required. There are really two candidates: D66 (centrist), which has 6 seats, or, again, the LPF (which has 8). The BBC reports that Balkenende has not ruled out getting the LPF on board, but I think the headline "Fortuyn party set for comeback" is an overestimate.

The LPF rocketed to power last May, coming out of nowhere to gain 26 seats in parliament; but it soon proved that without its founder, the late Pim Fortuyn, it was directionless. The part fell into internal bickering, causing such incidents as the minister for Economic Affairs having to excuse himself from an EU meeting in Brussels to attend to a party leadership crisis (I mean, for fuck's sake, how embarassing is that?). The breakdown of the LPF ultimately caused the CDA and VVD to pull the plug on the Balkenende I cabinet, and call for new elections. In the January elections, the LPF deservedly plummeted to 8 seats, less than a third of its previous 26; not quite as bad as the drop to 4 which the opinion polls were predicting, but pretty damaging nonetheless.

But from an interview in today's NRC Handelsblad (one of the three Dutch newspapers worth reading) with the LPF's leader, Mat Herben, I get the distinct impression that the damage inflicted has not taught him any humility. He's already dictating terms which would have to be met for the LPF to get on board, with a cocky attitude which is (to put it euphemistically) misplaced for someone who's been damn near annihilated in the polls.

I think Balkenende's statement on not ruling out the LPF was made for one reason; to act as a bargaining chip in negotiations with D66 ("We do have an alternative, you know..."). The LPF is as dead as its founder; it's just too stupid to lie down.

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